Poland - Ukraine play for the top spot, but the result could also change Bulgaria's path

Poland and Ukraine will face off tonight at 7:00 PM in "Arena 8888 Sofia" in one of the most interesting matches of the European Championship group stage. The match is a direct battle for first place in Group B, but its outcome directly affects Bulgaria before our national team's last match against Poland.
Ukraine enters the match with four wins from four games and 12 points, while Poland has three wins and 9 points, with the European champions yet to lose a single set. Bulgaria is third with three wins and 9 points.
Our national team's 1:3 (25:27, 25:21, 21:25, 21:25) loss to Ukraine put Gianlorenzo Blengini's team in a more difficult situation, but second place in the group is still not lost. What exactly Bulgaria will have to do against Poland will largely become clear after tonight's match.
A victory for Ukraine turns Poland - Bulgaria into a battle for second place
The most interesting option for Bulgaria is a victory for Ukraine. In this scenario, the Ukrainians will finish the group stage with five wins and secure first place.
Then Poland and Bulgaria will both have three wins before their direct match. If Ukraine wins 3:0 or 3:1,any victory for Bulgaria over Poland will put our national team in second place.
If Ukraine wins 3:2, the situation becomes more complicated because Poland will add one point. Then the result of Poland - Bulgaria and the set ratio could become crucial.
Even a 3:0 win for Poland leaves the door open for Bulgaria
At first glance, a clear victory for Poland tonight seems to be the most unfavorable scenario. However, it also keeps Bulgaria in the fight for B2.
If Poland - Ukraine is 3:0, the Poles will guarantee first place regardless of their last match. Ukraine will remain with four wins and 12 points.
If Bulgaria then defeats Poland by3:0 or 3:1, our national team will also finish with four wins and 12 points, but will have a better set ratio than Ukraine and will take second place.
With a 3:0 win over Poland, Bulgaria would finish with a set ratio of 13:4, and with a 3:1 win - 13:5. Ukraine, with a 0:3 loss tonight, would finish with 12:5.
Why is second place so important?
Here comes the big difference in the elimination scheme. If Bulgaria finishesB2, in the 1/8-finals will faceD3. If it remainsB3, the opponent will beD2. According to the official scheme, the winner of B3–D2 also enters the quarter-final bracket of B1.
With the developments in Group D, this could make a huge difference. France and Germany are battling for the top two positions, while Romania, Turkey, and Latvia are behind them. Thus, third place in our group could mean France or Germany as early as the 1/8-finals, while B2 would send Bulgaria against D3.
Both groups are running practically in sync. After Poland – Ukraine at 7:00 PM, at8:00 PM France and Germanywill clash directly in Group D. Within just a few hours, it could become significantly clearer both for which position Bulgaria will play against Poland, and which opponents are emerging on the other side of the bracket.
Ukraine enters with confidence, Poland still has no lost set
The Ukrainians arrive for the big clash after four consecutive victories. The last one was 3:0 against Portugal, and their main weapon was again the serve.
Oleh Plotnytskyi is the leading figure in Raul Lozano's squad.Sport.uanotes that at the time of its publication, he is the championship's top scorer and leader in aces. Against Portugal, the outside hitter finished with 19 points. The Ukrainians also rely heavily on Dmytro Yanchuk and Vasyl Tupchii, and middle blocker Vladyslav Shchurov returned against Portugal after a minor illness.
Poland, for its part, went through Portugal, Israel, and North Macedonia with three 3:0 victories. Nikola Grbić used the first matches for rotations, but against Ukraine, a completely different part of the tournament begins.
The two teams know each other very well. According toSport.uathey have already played twice in 2026 – Poland won 3:2 in the group stage of the Nations League, and then 3:1 in the 1/4-finals of the VNL.
Now the bet is even more interesting.Poland and Ukraine play for first place, but Bulgaria will watch this match with a calculator in hand.Because after the last ball tonight, we will know much more precisely what kind of victory over Poland can lead our national team to B2 – a position that can significantly change their path in the eliminations.