Poland and Ukraine will face off tonight at 7:00 PM in "Arena 8888 Sofia" in one of the most interesting matches of the European Championship group stage. The match is a direct battle for first place in Group B, but its outcome directly affects Bulgaria before our national team's last match against Poland.
Ukraine enters the match with four wins from four games and 12 points with a set ratio of 12:2. Poland has three wins, 9 points, and 9:0 sets, while Bulgaria is in third place with three wins, 9 points, and 10:4 sets.
Our national team's 1:3 (25:27, 25:21, 21:25, 21:25) loss to Ukraine complicated the situation, but second place is still entirely possible. With a specific combination, Bulgaria could even mathematically win the group.
If Ukraine wins – any victory over Poland makes Bulgaria second
This is the clearest scenario for our national team. If Ukraine defeats Poland 3:0, 3:1, or 3:2, they will finish the group stage with five wins and secure first place.
Then Poland will remain with three wins before their last match – the same as Bulgaria. Thus, Poland vs. Bulgaria on Tuesday at 7:00 PM will become a direct battle for second place.
Any victory will be enough for Bulgaria – 3:0, 3:1, or 3:2. Our national team will finish with four wins, while Poland will remain with three.
If Poland wins 3:0 – Bulgaria must take all three points
With a 3:0 win for Poland, the Poles will secure first place. They will have four wins, 12 points, and 12:0 sets, while Ukraine will finish with four wins, 12 points, and 12:5 sets.
Then Bulgaria must defeat Poland 3:0 or 3:1. With a 3:0 success, our national team will finish with a set ratio of 13:4, and with 3:1 – with 13:5. In both cases, Bulgaria will be ahead of Ukraine, who will have 12:5.
A 3:2 victory will not be enough, because Bulgaria will remain with 11 points against 12 for Ukraine.
With a 3:2 win for Poland, we again need 3:0 or 3:1
If Poland defeats Ukraine 3:2, Ukraine will finish with four wins and 13 points, and Poland will have four wins and 11 points.
To reach second place, Bulgaria must defeat Poland 3:0 or 3:1. Thus, our national team will finish with four wins and 12 points and will overtake the Poles.
With a 3:2 win for Bulgaria, both teams will finish with four wins and 12 points each, but Poland will have a better set ratio and will remain ahead of us.
Why second place is so important
The difference between second and third place can seriously change Bulgaria's path in the playoffs. As B2, our national team will meet D3 in the 1/8 finals, while as B3, the opponent will be D2. According to the official scheme, the winner of B3 – D2 also falls into the quarter-final bracket of the winner of Group B.
In Group D, Germany already has four wins and 11 points, and France has three wins and 9 points. Romania is third with 7 points. Thus, third place in our group could send Bulgaria against France or Germany as early as the 1/8 finals, while second place leads to D3.
Two matches tonight can complete almost the entire puzzle
Poland – Ukraine starts at 7:00 PM in Sofia, and just an hour later, France and Germany will face each other in Cluj-Napoca.
Thus, within a few hours, it may become significantly clearer not only what Bulgaria will need against Poland, but also which opponents our national team will face in the eliminations.
Ukraine on a streak, Poland still without a lost set
Ukraine has won all four of its matches so far – against Israel, North Macedonia, Bulgaria, and Portugal. The last success was a 3-0 victory against the Portuguese.
Oleh Plotnytskyi remains the leading figure in Raul Lozano's team. The Ukrainians also rely heavily on Dmytro Yanchuk and Vasyl Tupchii, and their serve has become one of their main weapons in Sofia.
Poland went through its first three opponents without losing a set – 3-0 against Portugal, 3-0 against Israel, and 3-0 against North Macedonia. Nikola Grbić also used these matches for rotations, but against Ukraine, the European champions are now facing their first big test in Sofia.
The two teams also met twice in VNL 2026. Poland won 3-2 in the group stage, and then eliminated Ukraine 3-1 in the quarterfinals.
Bulgaria will be watching with a calculator in hand
The most favorable option for Bulgaria tonight is clear – a victory for Ukraine. Then tomorrow's match with Poland becomes a direct battle for B2, and any Bulgarian victory will be enough.
If Poland wins, the task becomes tougher, and in most scenarios, our national team will have to take the full three points. And with exactly 3-1 for Poland tonight and 3-0 for Bulgaria tomorrow, the possibility of our national team finishing first in Group B remains open.