Bulgaria will participate in the Volleyball Nations League (VNL) 2026 as team #9 in the world according to the current world ranking after the World Championship in the Philippines.
And it is this detail that completely changes the perspective on the national team's program.
Because the 'Lions' calendar this year is not just a series of pools and geographical distributions, but realistically means one thing:
Bulgaria will play against 8 of the other 9 teams in the world's top 10.
This makes the preliminary phase of VNL 2026 one of the most elite and demanding programs the team has received in recent years.
Who Bulgaria plays against in VNL 2026 (according to current ranking)
Bulgaria (#9) will face:
Poland (#1)
Italy (#2)
France (#4)
USA (#5)
Slovenia (#6)
Argentina (#8)
Canada (#10)
Plus:
Serbia (#13), Belgium (#15), Iran (#16), Ukraine (#17), China (#28)
This means that within 12 matches, Bulgaria receives a calendar concentrated around direct competitors from the highest world level.
Why does this look different from the 4+4+4 formula?
The official logic of the tournament follows the so-called scheme4+4+4.
It states:
4 matches against teams from the highest category
4 matches against teams from the middle category
4 matches against teams from the lower category
The goal is technical balance – no team should receive a schedule only with giants or only with weaker opponents.
The key detail, however, is the following:
The categories are not made according to the current world ranking.
They are determined based on the standings after the end of VNL 2025.
And after the World Championship, the ranking of the teams is already different, which means that the 2026 schedule is objectively played with a completely different strength of opponents.
The result is paradoxical:
On paper – a balanced scheme.
In reality – a schedule full of top 10 opponents.
Week by week: where are the points and where is the risk
Week 1 – Brazil: start with matches where points must be earned.
In the first week, Bulgaria plays against Belgium (No. 15), Iran (No. 16), Argentina (No. 8), and Serbia (No. 13).
This is a week where most of the opponents are below Bulgaria in the ranking. Here, the logic is simple: these are matches where a solid points gain must be sought, because losses against teams like Iran or Belgium would have a more negative point effect.
The key match is against Argentina (No. 8) – a direct competitor around the top 10. A win there brings a serious bonus, while a loss is a moderate minus.
Week 2 – Ljubljana: the most mixed week in the calendar.
In Ljubljana, Bulgaria meets Italy (No. 2), Slovenia (No. 6), Canada (No. 10), and Ukraine (No. 17).
Here, the program is balanced between two different types of matches.
Against Italy and Slovenia, Bulgaria has a chance for a maximum bonus, as these are top 6 teams. Losses against them generally cost little, while a win would provide a significant jump.
At the same time, Canada and Ukraine are matches that directly affect point stability. It is against Canada that Bulgaria has had a negative trend in the last two years, which makes this match one of the most important in the tournament.
Week 3 – Chicago: the toughest concentration of elite opponents
In Chicago, Bulgaria plays against Poland (No. 1), China (No. 28), USA (No. 5), and France (No. 4).
Poland, USA, and France are matches with huge potential for bonus points in case of success. In terms of points, matches against top 5 teams carry minimal risk for the ranking, because a potential failure leads to a relatively small loss of points, while a win would provide a significant plus.
At the same time, the match against China remains in the "no room for error" category – Bulgaria is a huge favorite by ranking, and precisely for that reason, a potential loss would be costly.
What the head-to-head trend (2023–2025) shows
Against several of the upcoming opponents, Bulgaria has enough recent matches:
– USA and Iran are among the teams against which the national team has a positive balance in recent seasons.
– Slovenia is the most evenly matched opponent – results are split.
– Canada remains a problematic match with a series of losses.
– Against China, Bulgaria has two clear wins, but precisely for that reason, this match is in the "must-win" category.
Belgium and Serbia are more specific cases, because the last matches are older, and Bulgaria's squad has already significantly changed under Gianlorenzo Blengini.
Overall conclusion
Bulgaria's program in VNL 2026 is clearly structured:
– In Brazil, mandatory points are sought against lower-ranked teams.
– In Ljubljana, the balance between bonus matches and direct competitors is decided.
– In Chicago comes the toughest test against the top 5, plus one critical match against China.
In this tournament, the key will not only be the number of wins, but where exactly they were achieved – and most importantly, where costly losses in the ranking were avoided.
Final Conclusion
Ultimately, all calculations remain secondary to the main point: Bulgaria must make the most of its own matches. The schedule offers both opportunities for bonus points against the elite and matches where a collapse against lower-ranked opponents must not be allowed. If the results of other opponents help in the overall balance – that's just an additional plus. The decisive factor remains one: the national team must do its job on the field. All of this with a clear goal - more points, closer to Los Angeles 2028!
