Regarding the 2026 Volleyball Nations League (VNL), schemes with pools, cities, and dates have already appeared, and the media widely started publishing headlines such as 'Bulgaria learned its opponents' and 'The draw was not kind to us'. The truth is that weekly pools are not equivalent to a final schedule, and one cannot automatically conclude 'who will play against whom' from them.
The reason is simple: the 2025 VNL format (which is currently the last one officially described in the regulations) is structured such that each team plays 12 matches, spread over three weeks, with 4 matches per week, and 6 teams gathered in each city. This means that in each pool there are 5 potential opponents, but the team will actually play against 4 of them, and one remains without a direct match within the week.
How the 4+4+4 scheme works and what it means for Bulgaria
According to the VNL 2025 regulations, teams are distributed by 'sporting strength' into three categories of six teams each, and the balance is fixed:
each team plays 12 matches – against exactly 4 opponents from each category (4+4+4).
Here is the key clarification for Bulgaria:
Since the national team finished 11th in the final standings of VNL 2025, with a distribution of 18 teams = 3 categories of 6 teams each, this means that Bulgaria falls into the second category (places 7–12). Hence the logic of 4+4+4: if the format is maintained, Bulgaria must play a total of 12 matches in the preliminary phase, facing 4 teams from the first category, 4 teams from the second category, and 4 teams from the third category.
This is done to ensure technical balance and fairness, i.e., so that no one gets a schedule with only giants or only weaker teams.
What the unofficial scheme for Bulgaria shows (pools, cities, dates)
According to the circulated scheme, Bulgaria is placed in the following pools:
Week 1 (June 10–14) – Brazil
Brazil, Serbia, Argentina, Belgium, Bulgaria, Iran
Week 2 (June 24–28) – Ljubljana (Slovenia)
Slovenia, Bulgaria, Italy, Ukraine, Canada, Brazil
Week 3 (July 15–19) – Chicago (USA)
USA, Poland, France, China, Brazil, Bulgaria
Finals: July 29 – August 2, Ningbo Beilun (China) – Final 8.
The lesson from 2025: France was in our pools three times, but we didn't play against them even once.
The best proof that pools are not a schedule is the past season.
What did the VNL 2025 scheme show?
In the pools, Bulgaria was in the same group as France in all three weeks:
Quebec City (Canada): Italy, France, Argentina, Canada, Germany, Bulgaria
Burgas (Bulgaria): Japan, France, Slovenia, Ukraine, Turkey, Bulgaria
Gdansk (Poland): Poland, France, Cuba, Iran, Bulgaria, China
What actually happened?
Bulgaria played 4 matches per week, but never once met France in the preliminary phase – even though the French were present in all our pools.
This happens because with 6 teams in one city and only 4 matches per team for the week, there is always one “missed” opponent.
Three scenarios for what Bulgaria's program might look like (VNL 2026)
Important clarification: these are not “real matches”, but example scenarios showing how the matches could be arranged under the 4+4+4 scheme, when Bulgaria plays 4 matches per week.
Option 1: most balanced schedule (the textbook example 4+4+4)
This is the option that seems most logical from a “fairness” perspective – without repeating the same opponent and with a clean implementation of 4+4+4.
Week 1 – Brazil
Bulgaria – Iran
Bulgaria – Serbia
Bulgaria – Argentina
Bulgaria – Belgium
(excluded: Brazil)
Explanation:
Here, Bulgaria takes the maximum from the available “mid-tier” and “lower-tier” opponents in the pool. Thus, this week might prove most suitable for accumulating wins and points.
Week 2 – Ljubljana
Bulgaria – Ukraine
Bulgaria - Canada
Bulgaria – Italy
Bulgaria – Slovenia
(excluded: Brazil)
Explanation:
This is a week with two top matches and two key encounters against teams from "our zone" and from the third category. A lot is decided here for the ranking
both in terms of points and confidence.
Week 3 – Chicago
Bulgaria – USA
Bulgaria – China
Bulgaria – Poland
Bulgaria – France
(excluded: Brazil)
Explanation:
Here comes the tough week with two huge matches against world powers and two encounters against direct competitors in the standings. This is a scenario that is mathematically "clean" but requires a high level throughout the entire tournament.
Option 2: most probable schedule (TV and host factor logic)
This is a scenario that seems most realistic for a commercial tournament like VNL with at least one "hit" against a host/grand team during the week and with matches that sell a product.
Week 1 – Brazil
Bulgaria – Brazil
Bulgaria – Iran
Bulgaria – Serbia
Bulgaria – Argentina
(dropped: Belgium)
Explanation:
If Bulgaria is in a pool in Brazil, it is most logical to have a big match against the host. This is the "television" scenario that organizers often prefer.
Week 2 – Ljubljana
Bulgaria – Italy
Bulgaria – Slovenia
Bulgaria – Ukraine
Bulgaria - Canada
(excluded: Brazil)
Explanation:
Here we already have two tough top matches and two clashes in which Bulgaria must seek points at all costs. This is a week that can "pull up" or "bring down" the team in the standings.
Week 3 – Chicago
Bulgaria – Poland
Bulgaria – France
Bulgaria – USA
Bulgaria – China
(excluded: Brazil)
Explanation:
Chicago is a "showcase" and it is entirely possible for Bulgaria to get two super matches against top opponents and two matches against teams from our category, which directly influence the final ranking.
Option 3: Heaviest schedule (maximum top matches and risk for the ranking)
This is the "worst-case scenario", which shows why fans have grounds to demand more transparency – because even with 4+4+4, a very difficult combination of days and opponents can still result.
Week 1 – Brazil
Bulgaria – Brazil
Bulgaria – Iran
Bulgaria – Serbia
Bulgaria – Argentina
(dropped: Belgium)
Explanation:
Already in the first week, there is a risk of a series of difficult matches and strong psychological pressure, especially if the match with Brazil is early.
Week 2 – Ljubljana
Bulgaria – Italy
Bulgaria – Slovenia
Bulgaria – Ukraine
Bulgaria – Brazil
(dropped: Canada)
Explanation:
Here, a repeat of Brazil already appears and three matches against very strong teams within one week. This is a scenario that would be perceived as “unequal” if other teams from our zone have easier combinations.
Week 3 – Chicago
Bulgaria – Poland
Bulgaria – France
Bulgaria – USA
Bulgaria – China
(excluded: Brazil)
Explanation:
In this scenario, Bulgaria must play two matches against teams from the absolute elite and two against direct competitors for the top 8. This is the most difficult configuration possible for the final sprint.
What Volleyball World must publish to avoid speculation
To stop interpretations such as 'the draw was not kind to us' and 'Bulgaria learned its opponents', Volleyball World must publicly provide at least three clear elements:
Official matrix/methodology for applying 4+4+4
Not just the principle '4 matches against each category', but the specific model (matrix) by which it is chosenexactly whichare these 4 opponents from each strength group for each team.Restrictions on opponent repetitions in the preliminary phase
It must be clear whether a team can meet the same opponent more than once in the three weeks – and if so, under what conditions. This is crucial because repetitions can change both the difficulty of the schedule and the impact on the world ranking.Principle for distribution by days and breaks (fair scheduling)
Even with identical opponents, the schedule can be unfair if one team plays three tough matches in a short period, while another has a more favorable distribution. Therefore, it is important to publish how balance in breaks, match order, and workload within the week is ensured.
These are the three details that would transform the scheme from 'pools and guesswork' into a truly transparent system – and would stop speculation before it even begins.
The final truth that must be remembered
Until there is an an official match schedule, these are scenarios, not facts.
