Two rounds before the end of the Men's Volleyball Champions League group stage, the picture is beginning to take shape. Some of the favorites are already practically unreachable, but the real intrigue is yet to come – who will skip the playoffs, who will go through them, and most importantly, whether a scenario for a "Bulgarian" clash will emerge before the final phase in Milan.

The certain ones: three are locked in for the quarterfinals.

At this stage, there are three teams that are 100% certain for a direct spot in the quarterfinals:

• Ziraat Bank Ankara (Group A)

• Aluron Zawiercie (Group D)

• Cucine Lube Civitanova (Group E)

All three have 4 wins from 4 matches, which practically guarantees them first place in their group and a direct ticket to the knockout stage.

Almost confirmed leaders: Perugia and Bogdanka are very close.

Two more teams are very close to the "certain ones" and also seem almost guaranteed for direct qualification:

• Perugia (Group C)

• Bogdanka LUK Lublin (Group B)

However, the biggest interest for Bulgarian fans is precisely around Lublin, because Alex Grozdanov is in the Polish team, and the team has real potential to attack the final phase in Milan (top 4).

To make it clear why every set in the remaining two rounds counts double, here's the most important part of the scheme – without unnecessary math:

• Group winners + the best second-placed team go directly to the quarterfinals.

• The remaining second-placed teams and all third-placed teams play playoffs, from which three will reach the quarterfinals.

• The most dangerous zone is among the 4th and 5th ranked group winners, because a "final before the final" could happen there.

The great Bulgarian hope: Bogdanka to avoid Perugia.

The most undesirable scenario for the Bulgarian public is for Bogdanka to encounter the "powerhouse" Perugia too early, because the Italian giant is one of those teams that can turn the quarterfinal into an "impossible" mission, regardless of the opponent.

Therefore, Lublin's most important goal in the remaining two rounds is simple and clear: Bogdanka must win its group. This is the surest way for the team to secure a more favorable path to the knockout stage and keep the dream of Milan fully realistic. Bogdanka is very close to the quarterfinals, but there's no room for complacency yet – because Group B is the trickiest, and there are direct matches that can shuffle everything.

The Bulgarian focus: the two matches that decide Bogdanka's fate.

For the Poles, everything hinges on these two matches:

• Halkbank – Bogdanka

• Bogdanka – Galatasaray

These matches will determine whether Lublin retains its leading position and avoids the most unfavorable scenarios for the next phase's seeding. This is also Bogdanka's risk – with inconsistencies in the opposite hitters and the situation surrounding Kevin Sasak, one bad day could derail their entire journey to Milan.

The trap that could bring a "Bulgarian derby" as early as the 1/4-final

There is also one scenario that sounds like a dream plot, but it's a double-edged sword for our hopes.

If Bogdanka wins its group, it almost certainly avoids the toughest topic: "Perugia against us too early." But then another real possibility opens up:

➡️ Bogdanka (Alex Grozdanov) – Lube (Alex Nikolov) in the 1/4-final

This is entirely possible according to the tournament structure, because in the 1/4-finals there is a direct pairing between two of the group winners, ranked lower in the overall seeding of the leaders.

The paradox for Bulgaria: a dream and a guarantee simultaneously

• If Bogdanka and Lube meet in the 1/4-final ➜ this guarantees that at least one "Bulgarian" team will be in Milan (top 4).

• But there's also the flip side ➜ one of the two will be eliminated before the final phase, regardless of how strong a season they are having.

That is, the "Bulgarian derby" is a dream as an emotion and a headline, but it comes at a heavy price for the dream of seeing both of our national players in the tournament for as long as possible.

The five matches that will "lock" the groups in the entire tournament

In the remaining two rounds, there are several matches that will definitively determine the first places, second positions, and the overall picture for the playoffs and 1/4-finals:

• Trentino – ZiraatBank (Group A)

• Roeselare – Galatasaray (Group B)

• Berlin – Perugia (Group C)

• Resovia – Zawiercie (Group D)

• Lube – Warsaw (Group E)

Precisely these matches can bring the most important detail – who will enter the eliminations comfortably and who will be forced to go through a "minefield".

Two rounds remain, and the stakes are huge: either a comfortable path to Milan, or a life-or-death clash as early as the quarter-finals.