The Volleyball Champions League is entering its decisive phase, and Bulgaria has a double reason to follow the developments with particular attention. The reason is two of our brightest national players –Alex Nikolovwith the Italian giantCucine Lube CivitanovaandAlex Grozdanovwith the Polish leaderBogdanka LUK Lublin.
Both teams are already sure winners in their groups and advance directly to the 1/4 finals. The big question, however, remains:
Is it possible for the two Bulgarians to face each other as early as the first elimination phase?
How does the scheme work after the groups?
After the end of the group stage:
the five group winners are ranked from No. 1 to No. 5
the three playoff winners complete the quarter-final bracket
The key moment is the following:
The only direct 1/4-final between leaders is No. 4 vs. No. 5.
That is, for a clash to occur:
Lube – Bogdanka
the two teams must finish as:
No. 4 and No. 5 in the overall ranking of group winners.
What do the numbers show after the 5th round?
After the penultimate round, the leaders look like this:
Ziraat Ankara- 15 pts, games 15:2
Perugia- 14 pts, 15:4
Lube- 13 pts, 14:3 (best point ratio - 1.314)
Lublin- 12 pts, 15:7
Zawiercie- 12 pts, 12:4
Currently:
Lube is No. 3
Bogdanka Lublin is No. 4
Meaning the two teams are not in the direct clash zone.
Clarification:According to CEV regulations, the leading criterion for ranking in the group stage is points scored, not the number of wins. That's why Lube is ahead of Bogdanka Lublin, even though the Polish team has more matches won.
Is a "Bulgarian" derby possible in the 1/4-finals?
Theoretically – yes.
Practically – the chance is minimal.
The reason is Lube's performance indicators.
The Italians have:
a very strong set ratio (14:3)
the best point ratio among all leaders
This makes it almost impossible for Lube to drop to №5, even with a loss in the last round.
For a Lube – Lublin quarter-final to happen, a sensation must occur:
Lube to lose heavily
other leaders to win convincingly
and the Italians to collapse to the bottom of the standings
Only with such a combination can the two teams end up as №4 and №5, which would automatically pit them against each other as early as the quarter-finals.
But if the favorites defend their class, the Bulgarian national players will more likely go separate ways in the eliminations – hoping their eventual meeting happens later, on an even bigger stage.
If there's no derby – what's next?
The most realistic scenario is that Lube and Bogdanka will avoid each other in the quarter-finals and will get different opponents.
Who is Bogdanka Lublin's most likely opponent?
As №4 in the standings, the Poles will most likely play against №5:
Bogdanka Lublin – Zawiercie
A Polish derby in the quarter-final, in which Alex Grozdanov could be in the spotlight.
Who is Lube's most likely opponent?
As No. 3, Lube will face the strongest of the three playoff winners.
And favorites to advance from the playoffs are teams like:
Trentino
Resovia
Projekt Warszawa
That means Alex Nikolov and company could get a tough Italian or Polish opponent already at this stage.
Other possible quarter-final pairings (excluding Lube – Lublin)
With a logical development of events, the bracket could offer:
Ziraatagainst a weaker playoff winner
Perugiaagainst a medium-strength playoff winner
Lubeagainst the strongest playoff winner (Trentino/Resovia/Warszawa)
LublinagainstZawiercie
Conclusion
A Bulgarian derby between Alex Nikolov and Alex Grozdanov already in the quarter-finals would be an exceptional sensation, possible only with a very specific reshuffling in the leaders' standings.
The more realistic scenario is:
Lube to face a tough opponent from the playoffs
Bogdanka to play a Polish derby against Zawiercie
And a potential meeting between the two Bulgarians seems more likely only in a later stage, if both teams reach the Final Four.
We will find out what will actually happen next week.
photo: Nikolay Varadinov
