Italy dominates without loss
The Olympic champions from Italy are confidently heading towards the finals of the Nations League. Julio Velasco's team is the only one that currently has not suffered a single loss in this year's edition of the tournament and leads the standings with an impressive 9 wins, 25 points, and an impressive game balance of 5.400. On Wednesday in Apeldoorn, the Italians gave no chance to Belgium and solidified their leading position. In fact, their place in the final eight in Łódź is already fully guaranteed.
Poland, Brazil and Turkey also with one foot in the finals
In second place is Poland with 8 wins and 24 points, which started the tournament in Chiba with a victory over South Korea - albeit with some difficulties. As hosts of the finals, Poland is guaranteed participation in Łódź anyway, regardless of the regular season standings - by rule, the host automatically receives a quota for the top eight. In this case, however, this is purely formal, because the Poles, even without their host privilege, show that they deserve a place among the best. With eight wins and stable play, they occupy second place in the table, which means that their host quotawill not displace anyone from the other teams, as would happen if they were around or outside the top 8 boundary (this is not the case for men, where China is outside the top eight, but as hosts of the finals, they will displace the eighth-ranked team). Thus, Poland enters the finals both by right as organizer and on a purely sporting principle.
Third in the standings are the Brazilians with 8 wins, 23 points, and a game ratio of 3.000. The "Canarinhas" started the last tournament with a 3:1 victory over Bulgaria and are also certain participants in the final eight.
Turkey occupies the fourth position with exactly the same number of wins (8), but with 22 points and an even better game ratio - 3.125. The Turks had no problems securing their participation in Łódź after decisively defeating the Netherlands at the start in Apeldoorn.
Japan almost in, but Germany, China and USA are still trembling
Fifth are the Japanese with 7 wins and 21 points, who are also very close to qualifying. Ferhat Akbaş's protégés show stability and have an excellent game ratio of 3.000, which puts them in a comfortable position before the last matches.
Behind them are China with 6 wins, 17 points, and a game coefficient of 1.400, as well as Germany with 5 wins, 16 points, and a game ratio of 1.166. The eighth place is currently occupied by the USA with 5 wins and 14 points, but with the lowest game indicator among the leading teams - 1.058, which makes the battle for the last quotas in Łódź extremely tense.
Czech Republic and Dominican Republic are eyeing a spot in the top eight
Immediately behind them are the Czech Republic and the Dominican Republic, who are in 9th and 10th place with 4 wins and 10 points each. Although they are behind in points, they retain real chances to take advantage of possible mistakes by the teams in the top eight zone.
Theoretically, France, the Netherlands, and Bulgaria, who have 3 wins each and are just a step behind the Czech Republic and the Dominican Republic, can still dream of the finals. For the teams of Canada, Serbia, Thailand, and South Korea, qualification seems impossible, but as long as the ball is in the air, miracles happen.
Prediction for the battle for Łódź
Judging by the current form of the teams, their game ratios, and the schedule of the remaining matches until the end of the regular season, the qualification for the final eight in Łódź seems almost decided for the first five positions. Italy, Poland, Brazil, Turkey, and Japan have practically secured their participation, and the only question is in what order they will finish before the eliminations.
The real drama is expected around places 6th to 8th, where China, Germany, and the USA will have to defend their fragile lead in direct clashes. They have upcoming matches among themselves and with close competitors, which will literally determine who will take the last three tickets to Łódź. Below the line, the Czech Republic and the Dominican Republic are lurking, who with a good series and a few fluctuations from the favorites can sneak into the top eight at the last moment.
And where is Bulgaria in the whole picture?
Bulgaria occupies 13th place with 3 wins and 9 points and is practically out of the direct battle for the finals. Nevertheless, the young squad, led by Toni Zetova, showed character in the match against Brazil, where they managed to take a set against one of the favorites for the title. An additional difficulty for the team is the injury of libero Galina Karabasheva, who will not play until the end of the tournament, and this will force Bulgaria to rely only on Mila Pashkuleva or to use one of the receivers in this role.
The upcoming matches against France and South Korea provide an opportunity for new victories and more playing time for the young players, who are already gaining experience against the best in the world. Although qualification for Łódź seems unlikely, the accumulated minutes and the courage gathered against top opponents are the most valuable capital for the future of this team.
