Bulgaria awaits the outcome: Italy changed the battle for the semi-final pairings.
Italy took an important step towards the semi-finals of the European Championship for Men U18 after defeating Slovenia 3:1 (28:30, 25:19, 25:23, 25:20) in a direct clash between two of the contenders for second place in Group I.
With their fifth victory in six matches, the hosts climbed to sole possession of second place with 14 points, displacing Slovenia, which remained third with 12. Poland is already the confirmed winner of the group with six wins and a maximum of 18 points.
Thus, Italy significantly approached the semi-finals and is currently the most likely opponent for the winner of Bulgaria's group. On the final day, the "Azzurri" will face Turkey, who have only one win, while Slovenia will play against Finland and will be hoping for a misstep from the hosts.
Bulgaria has already secured a spot among the top four teams in the tournament after defeating Czechia 3:0 (25:19, 25:18, 25:18) yesterday. With this success, Miroslav Zhivkov's squad accumulated 15 points and took the lead in Group II before the final round.
Before the match against Czechia, Bulgaria and France had an equal number of wins and points, with the French holding first place due to their better point ratio. After yesterday's matches, the situation is now in favor of the Bulgarian team.
Bulgaria and France both have five wins and 15 points, but the "lion cubs" have a better set ratio – 16:5 versus 16:6 for the French. This places the national team in a better position before the final group matches.
To guarantee first place without depending on other results, Bulgaria must defeat Spain 3:0 or 3:1. In such a scenario, the national team will finish with six wins and 18 points and will remain ahead of France based on set ratio, even if the French also win with three points against Belgium.
If Bulgaria wins 3:2, the calculations will remain open. The national team would then have six wins and 17 points. If France defeats Belgium 3:0 or 3:1, the French will accumulate six wins and 18 points and will finish first in the group. However, if France wins 3:2 or loses, Bulgaria will remain at the top.
In case of a defeat by Spain, Miroslav Zhivkov's squad will now depend entirely on France's result. A victory for the French will take them to first place, and Bulgaria will remain second and will face the winner of Group I – undefeated Poland.
Thus, the most secure scenario for Bulgaria is a 3:0 or 3:1 victory against Spain. This will secure first place in the group and send the national team against the second-place team from Group I, which is currently Italy.
In the other group, the intrigue remains around second place. Italy has 14 points, Slovenia has 12, and the hosts hold their fate in their own hands before the match against Turkey. Even a 3:2 victory will take Italy to 16 points and make Slovenia's result irrelevant.
Currently, the most likely semi-final pairings are Bulgaria – Italy and Poland – France. However, this will only materialize if Bulgaria finishes first in Group II and Italy maintains second place in Group I.
The schedule for Group I on the final day includes the matches Finland – Slovenia, Greece – Iceland, Serbia – Poland, and Turkey – Italy.
In Group II, France will play Belgium, Germany will face Romania, Czechia will go up against the Netherlands, and Bulgaria will conclude its participation in the preliminary phase with a match against Spain.
Thus, the national team already has a secure ticket to the semi-finals, but their final task in the group remains extremely important. A 3:0 or 3:1 victory against Spain will guarantee them first place and will send them against the second-place team from Group I, instead of against the tournament's only undefeated team – Poland.