Just a year ago, Bulgaria was one win away from participating in the final tournament of the Nations League. The national team reached their last preliminary phase match against Iran in Gdansk, but lost 0:3 (17:25, 17:25, 16:25) and missed out on the finals.
A year later, the situation looks familiar. Before the last four matches of the preliminary phase, Gianlorenzo Blengini's team is eighth with 5 wins and 14 points. At the other end of the standings, only undefeated Japan is already very close to securing participation in the final tournament, while the battle for the remaining spots remains completely open.
This time, however, eighth place will not be enough. China is hosting the final tournament in Ningbo, but with only one win after the first eight matches, they have no chance of qualifying on sporting merit. Therefore, the Chinese will occupy the eighth place as hosts, and the remaining seven positions will be distributed according to the final standings of the preliminary phase.
Who are the main contenders?
A total of nine teams are involved in the battle for the last spots in the final tournament. The differences are minimal, and every victory can significantly alter the standings.
| Rank | Team | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Slovenia | 6 | 14 |
| 5 | Ukraine | 5 | 16 |
| 6 | Italy | 5 | 16 |
| 7 | Turkey | 5 | 14 |
| 8 | Bulgaria | 5 | 14 |
| 9 | Brazil | 5 | 13 |
| 10 | Germany | 4 | 12 |
| 11 | Serbia | 4 | 12 |
| 12 | France | 4 | 10 |
Bulgaria has the same record as seventh-placed Turkey but trails in set ratio. Brazil is just one point behind the national team, and Germany, Serbia, and France have also not given up the fight. This means that every win and every point gained could prove crucial.
Who has the most favorable schedule?
At first glance, the contenders' schedules seem similar, but if they are divided according to the strength of their opponents, the differences are significant.
| Team | Matches against Top 10 | Matches against direct rivals | Matches against teams outside Top 12 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bulgaria | 2 (Poland, USA) | 1 (France) | 1 (China) |
| Turkey | 2 (Ukraine, Slovenia) | 2 (Serbia, Iran) | 0 |
| Ukraine | 2 (Turkey, Germany) | 2 (Serbia, Iran) | 0 |
| Slovenia | 2 (Turkey, Germany) | 2 (Serbia, Iran) | 0 |
| Italy | 1 (Japan) | 0 | 3 (Belgium, Argentina, Cuba) |
| Brazil | 3 (USA, Poland, France) | 0 | 1 (China) |
Italy seems to have the easiest schedule. In contrast, Turkey, Ukraine, and Slovenia will play almost continuously against direct competitors, which means they will inevitably take wins and points from each other. Bulgaria also has a tough calendar, but its fate largely remains in its own hands.
Chicago - here Bulgaria must do its job
In Chicago, the nationals will play their own matches, but will also monitor the performance of Brazil and and France.
| Date | Match | Significance for Bulgaria | Most favorable outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| July 15 | Bulgaria - Poland | Bonus match against a favorite | Bulgaria's victory |
| July 15 | France - Brazil | Direct clash between competitors | France wins |
| July 16 | China – France | France is among the chasers | China's victory |
| July 17 | USA – Brazil | Brazil is a direct competitor | Victory for USA |
| July 17 | China – Bulgaria | The most important match so far | Bulgaria's victory |
| July 18 | Brazil – Poland | Another opportunity for Brazil to lose points | Victory for Poland |
| July 19 | USA – Bulgaria | Every set won could be valuable | Bulgaria's victory |
| July 19 | China – Brazil | Last chance for a Chinese surprise | China's victory |
| July 20 | Bulgaria – France | Possible direct clash for the finals | Bulgaria's victory |
Victories against China and France seem mandatory. If success or even valuable points against Poland or the USA are added, Bulgaria will take a huge step towards Ningbo.
Belgrade – the tournament that can decide everything
While Bulgaria will fight in Chicago, almost all direct clashes between direct competitors will be played in Belgrade. Unlike the matches in Chicago, here it's not always possible to predict the best result for Bulgaria in advance, because it will depend on the development of the standings each subsequent day.
| Date | Match | Why is it important? | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| July 15 | Germany – Slovenia | Direct clash between competitors | A defeat for Slovenia would bring Bulgaria closer to the Top 7. |
| July 15 | Ukraine – Iran | Ukraine is ahead of Bulgaria | An Iran success would be excellent news for the national team. |
| July 15 | Serbia – Turkey | Turkey is directly ahead of Bulgaria | Every point lost by Turkey is important. |
| July 16 | Iran – Germany | Germany is among the pursuers | The outcome will also depend on the developments on the first day. |
| July 16 | Serbia – Ukraine | A new direct clash | Another opportunity for Ukraine to be stopped. |
| July 17 | Turkey – Ukraine | One of the key matches | The best outcome for Bulgaria will depend on the current standings. |
| July 17 | Iran – Slovenia | Slovenia is ahead of Bulgaria | A new opportunity for the Slovenians to lose points. |
| July 18 | Turkey – Slovenia | Direct clash between rivals | It is possible for both teams to lose valuable points in a tie-break. |
| July 18 | Serbia – Germany | Clash between pursuers | The outcome will depend on the standings up to this point. |
| July 19 | Ukraine – Germany | Last direct clash | It could prove decisive for the final quotas. |
| July 19 | Serbia – Slovenia | Last match in Belgrade | It is entirely possible that this match will determine the final standings. |
This makes the tournament in Belgrade extremely valuable for Bulgaria. Competitors will face each other almost every day, and it's impossible for everyone to win simultaneously. This is precisely why the national team must make the most of their own opportunities.
What do the scenarios look like?
| Wins in Chicago | What does it mean? |
|---|---|
| 4 | Practically guaranteed qualification for the finals. |
| 3 | Very strong chances for a top-seven finish. |
| 2 | The outcome of the matches in Belgrade and the additional criteria will be awaited. |
| 1 or 0 | The chances become minimal. |
In case of an equal number of wins, the first criterion is points won, followed by game ratio and then point ratio. That is why every point and every won game can prove crucial.
In 2025, Bulgaria missed its chance in the last match against Iran. Now the national team is once again in a position to fight for participation in the final tournament. This time, however, their fate will not be decided solely in Chicago. What happens in Belgrade, where direct competitors will determine not only their own future but also Bulgaria's, will also be of immense importance.
